Posted by donklass (95.132.121.172) on February 17, 2010 at 16:39:00:
In Reply to: Old Lesbian Young Girl posted by Old Gays on March 10, 2009 at 03:35:41:
Too often in our lives experiments are put on real systems, whether the country's economy, a separate organization or system management of a complex intersection. The person accepting the decision, hopes thus for the insight, intuition and good luck. To a bowl of all it in anything good does not result. Decision-maker, is hoping with its insight, intuition and luck. Most often it is any good does not. " Wanted as better, and it has turned out as always " - the usual characteristic of such decisions. " We wanted the best, but it turned out as always " - This is the usual characteristics of such solutions.
Low efficiency of the administrative decisions made on the basis of intuition, speaks that, that causes and effects in complex(difficult) systems are carried in time and space, therefore it is difficult for person to predict, what consequences will be caused with this or that decision. The low efficiency of management decisions made based on intuition, because the cause and effect in complex systems are separated in time and space, so the man is hard to predict what impact will a decision. When for a rating of accepted decisions experiment with real systems is impossible or expensive, modelling is used. In cases where the assessment for decision-making experiment with real systems is impossible or too expensive, using simulation.
Imitating modelling is a development of computer models and production of experiments on them. The purpose of modelling finally is acceptance adequate (i.e. proved, expedient and sold) administrative decisions. Simulation - is the development of computer models and the experiments on them. The purpose of modeling is ultimately the adoption of adequate (ie sound, feasible and implementable) management decisions. Computer modelling becomes today an obligatory stage in acceptance of critical decisions in all spheres of activity of the person in connection with complication of systems within the framework of which the person should operate and which it(he) should operate. Computer simulation is now an obligatory stage in making responsible decisions in all areas of human activity in relation to the complexity of systems in which a man must act, and that it must manage. The knowledge of concepts, principles and opportunities of imitating modelling, skill to build and use model are necessary requirements to a polic
y(politics), to the engineer, the manager, business - analytics, etc. Knowledge of concepts, principles and capabilities of simulation, the ability to build and use models are the essential requirements for the policy, engineers, managers, business analysts, etc.
The matter is that decision-making on the rational organization and management of modern systems becomes impossible on the basis of usual common sense or intuition because of growing complexity of systems. In most cases thus incorrect decisions since The fact is that decisions on the rational organization and management of modern systems is not possible on the basis of common sense or intuition because of the increasing complexity sistem. V most cases, we choose the wrong decisions, because people are unable to expect result of their influences in complex(difficult) systems get out. people are unable to predict the outcome of their actions in complex systems.
In this case construction of social and economic model of a society is supposed, to be exact " we want to construct the country where will want to live everyone! " In this case, is expected to build the socio-economic model of society, but rather " We want to build a country where everyone wants to live! "
More in detail